We build a story that suits our narrative so that the story completes. When we don’t have clear and visible answers, we assume them. Understanding why something has happened is an essential skill for survival. When you feel you understand the world better, you feel in control-you feel safe. It happens because we are constantly looking out to make sense of the world. But where it hurts the most is by manipulating how we make decisions for the future. When you look back in time and see events as more predictable than they had appeared, it is the habit to see the past as inevitable, but only after it had happened. The hindsight bias is when you overestimate your ability to predict the outcome. Why did we not learn it the first time? Blame it on The Hindsight Bias.
When the same situation arises again, we feel good that we know what will go wrong and we will win this time, only to fail again and blame new things for the results. But when the decision goes wrong, we attribute specific actions as a point of failure. We make decisions based on the information we have and assume the rest of the information we need. We also face the same “For The First Time” situations in our lives. He didn’t know what was failing in real-time, but he only could guess it. He had to decide based on what information was available to him. But that was not the case with the pilot who faced the problem for the first time. They ran multiple simulations practising the situation and reacting to it in a better way. It was primarily because the agencies knew in advance what they would face, and then based on that, they then suggested the alternate choice that which pilot would have made. While arguing in his defence, the pilot debates that the investigation findings are unrealistic. Most of the simulations show that it was indeed possible.
They run multiple flight simulations with the last recorded information and predict if the flight could return in such a situation. In this investigation, the agency claims that the flight could have landed back at the airport more safely than the way it landed in the river causing massive losses to airlines. All passengers and crew survived most suffered only minor injuries, but the accident had to undergo a subsequent investigation. If we can refer to something, there is a movie, Sully starring Tom Hanks and loosely based on actual events of the emergency landing of US Airways Flight 1549 on the Hudson River. When things have already happened, it’s straightforward to make sense of them. Life looks simple when we look backwards.
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